In last week’s column, I talked about stopping and resetting. Player A, who was introduced, plays a role beyond expectations in the next turn following his first record. Someone has commented on this. ‘Don’t ask, don’t argue, trust and wait. You mean your true value will show up over time?’
That’s a good point. I can ask that question because I said in my last column, ‘Don’t look at the cause of the pause’. But as I said before, pinpointing the cause of an issue is not an easy task.
In general,메이저사이트 people struggle very hard to find cause-and-effect relationships. However, there are many cases that are connected to the reason that is not the real cause. Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman elaborates on these ‘heuristic’ biases in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. In an uncertain situation, people simply and quickly accept complex phenomena by guessing without thinking about averages or probabilities.
For example, strange rumors circulate in London, the capital of England, which was terrified by the indiscriminate rocket attack by the German army during World War II. It is a ghost story that ‘there is a German spy in downtown London, and rockets are dropped in a specific area’. With technology at the time, the rockets fell indiscriminately, and the difference between the more bombed areas and the less bombed areas was not large and was a result of chance. However, some claim that there are spies in unbombed areas. Kahneman quotes statistician William Feller, “How easy it is for people to find patterns that don’t exist. Random phenomena appear to the non-specialist eye as tendencies that repeat in a pattern and form a herd.”
Why don’t you listen to your inner story first before asking a colleague who is struggling to stop, a friend, a family member, or yourself? It is understandable to try to find the cause and why, and to help solve the problem. However, if you give too much meaning to small clues or fit a simple phenomenon into the cause without sufficient grounds, it goes against the mind of the person concerned. It reminds me of someone who said, ‘When I’m having a hard time, the comfort and advice I get from people around me sometimes makes it harder.’ If you want to show your sincerity, if you want to connect, you need more empathy.
Now someone by your side, or you, is about to come back from pause and hit the reset button. But resetting isn’t just about turning the engine back on its way. I would like to say ‘reset = rediscovery of strategy’.
What would happen if you modified your strategy and completely changed the game? Since the opponent is used to my pattern, it is difficult for them to catch up with me after the reset. This is one of the reset effects. In this regard, I will tell you my failure story. When I was on the baseball team, I went looking for ‘undervalued blue chip stocks’ from other teams. Observing promising players with great potential but failing, predicting the future of the opposing team and considering the possibility of trade. A few years ago, Lotte professional baseball player Na Kyun-ahn was transitioning from catcher to pitcher, but he was also from the area where he was related, so I looked closely. His own analysis raised question marks about his chances of success as a pitcher. The evaluation of pitch value, etc. was low.
But this year, this player stood tall as the main beam of his team. what would have made the difference The data itself may have been correct, but if you reset it completely, you can see the limitations of the analysis. Why do you want to change so much? The numbers cannot express the player’s mind right now. It was not enough to figure out the process he continued to revise and refine. The method of data analysis, which uses averages around certain patterns, may have overlooked several attempts after the reset. I ate a big one, doubting that it would work out. It’s late for my player’s reset, but I’m cheering for him and learning another one.
There are several behavioral economics concepts and case studies, such as the status quo, sunk costs, and loss aversion that influence the decision to reset. We’ll go into more depth next time.
Korea Coach Association Certified Coach Kim Jong-moon
Kim Jong-moon was a reporter for the JoongAng Ilbo, and from 2011 to 2021 worked as a front for the NC Dinos baseball team. At the end of 2018, he took over as the leader of the ‘last-place’ team and led it to the first championship team two years later. He is currently a Korean Coach Association Certified Coach (KAC).