. And at the moment halfway through the 4th quarter, what is the probability that the team that is leading will win? Finally, what is the probability that the team that leads with two minutes left before the end of the game will win?
This article examined the records to answer three questions. The target was limited to the first 100 games of the regular league in the 2022-2023 season (game numbers 1-100, based on the end of the game on December 14). The scores were collected at the moments when the remaining time of the fourth quarter was 10:00, 5:00, and 2:00, and if a free throw was being attempted at that moment, the score after the free throw was completed was reflected. For games that went into overtime, only the final score was used, not taking into account the extra time record. Probabilities are rounded to two decimal places.
What if you finished the third quarter ahead? The winning rate is 80.9% in
the last 4 quarters, a quarter in which the win or loss is covered unless it leads to overtime. As soon as the curtain rises in the 4th quarter, the winning rate of the leading team was 80.9% (76/94). If you finished the third quarter with a lead, it counts as a win 8 out of 10 times. Excluding situations such as losing the lead in the middle, it is a figure that focuses only on the result.
Let’s take a closer look. Excluding 6 games that started with a tie in the 4th quarter, out of 100 games covered in the main story, the team that was leading at the start of the 4th quarter won 76 times. It started with a lead in the 4th quarter, but ended up losing in 18 cases. Nine teams, excluding Korea Gas Corporation, have failed to keep their lead until the third quarter. Samsung (4 times) allowed the most turnovers, followed by KCC (3 times), LG/SK/Hyundai Mobis/DB (2 times each), and Carrot/KT/KGC Ginseng Corporation (1 time each).
If there is a case where the lead is not kept, there will inevitably be cases where the lead is taken the same number of times. While a total of 9 teams have overcome the score difference at the start of the 4th quarter, KCC could not be found in the list of teams with experience finishing with a come-from-behind victory. SK (4 times) was the team with the most come-from-behind wins in the 4th quarter after overcoming the inferiority until the 3rd quarter. SK made a turnaround in the 4th quarter against KCC, LG, Hyundai Mobis, and DB. Carrot and KGC Ginseng Corporation also succeeded in reversing 3 times each in the 4th quarter. Carrot took a reverse electrode in the 4th quarter against Samsung/KCC/DB, and KGC Ginseng Corporation against Samsung/LG/Carrot. KT and LG succeeded in reversing twice each, and DB/Samsung/Hyundai Mobis/Korea Gas Corporation succeeded in reversing once each.
As an aside, the most intense match was held on November 23 last year between KCC and KGC Ginseng Corporation. The two teams started the 4th quarter with a tie and played a seesaw game with a goal difference, and the score was maintained until 2 minutes before the end. Final score 84-82, KGC Ginseng Corporation laughed at the expedition.
With 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, the winning rate of the team in the lead is 88.0% Halfway
through the 4th quarter, 5 minutes remain. If the score difference is not small, the outline of the winning team is revealed. In fact, the team that was leading with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter had a win rate of 88.0% (88/100). This is a 7.1% increase from the 80.9% win rate of the team that led at the start of the 4th quarter.
Conversely, 12.0% (12/100) of the total won even after giving up the lead until the 5th minute of the 4th quarter. KT/Samsung/Hyundai Mobis/SK recorded 2 times each, and LG/KGC Ginseng Corporation/DB/Carrot recorded 1 time each. In 9 out of 12 times, the score difference was within 5 points after 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. KCC and KOGAS are the only teams that failed to turn the game around in the remaining 5 minutes. 먹튀검증
If the difference between the two teams exceeds 10 points at the end of 5 minutes of game time in the 4th quarter, the match ends with the lead team winning with a 100% probability. In other words, if you are behind by 10 points or less five minutes before the end of the game, there is a chance of a turnaround, but if the difference is more than that, there is no turnaround. At least that was the case in the first 100 games of the 2022-2023 season.
With 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter, KT was the team that overcame the largest score difference. KT greeted the fourth quarter with a score of 56-72. They tied Samsung to 8 points for nearly 9 minutes, and drove 24 points with the firepower of Jung Sung-woo and Kim Dong-wook. 80-80 as a result. KT gave Marcus Derrickson 3 points, including free throws, but Kim Dong-wook’s 3-point shot and Ha Yoon-gi’s dunk ended the 85-83 victory.
2 minutes before the end of the game, if you are in the lead, the odds are 94.7%
With 2 minutes remaining, there have only been 5 games where both teams were tied. Out of 100 games, excluding these 5 games, in 95 games, the probability that the team that led two minutes before the end of the game would win was a whopping 94.7% (90/95). This means that if the team that takes the lead lasts two minutes before the final whistle blows, it will win more than 9 out of 10 times.
Of the 5 times that the score was tied two minutes before the end of the 4th quarter, the team that was holding the lead at the start of the 4th quarter won 3 times. There was one case where a team that was behind at the start of the fourth quarter tied the game with two minutes remaining, and one case where the score was tied both at the start of the fourth quarter and two minutes remaining. The number of cases is small, but if you look at the probability, the probability of winning even if the team that was leading at the start of the 4th quarter allowed a tie with 2 minutes left until the end of the game, the probability of winning was 75% (3/4).
It was also confirmed in five games that the team that was lagging two minutes before the end turned around. The most thrilling winning shot came from the match between KCC and Carrot on October 25, 2022. 90-90 with about 10 seconds left in the game. As Jeon Seong-hyun’s pass caught Heo Woong’s hand, KCC found the right to attack, but Jeon Seong-hyun blocked La Gun-ah’s movement and David Simon took the ball. Afterwards, Jeon Seong-hyun flew up from the outskirts despite Jeong Chang-young’s close defense. And a three-point salute was fired.
On the other hand, there were a total of 61 games where the score difference between the two teams was less than double digits with two minutes left in the fourth quarter. There were 37 games where the score difference was 5 points or less, and there were 5 games where there was a double tie. About 4 out of 10 games, it can be seen that it was a game that walked on thin ice within 5 points in a situation with only 2 minutes left.